Realtors slash sales forecast

Realtors slash sales forecast

National Association of Realtors predicts sales of existing homes will fall to 10.8 percent of last year.

Alan Zibel / Associated Press

WASHINGTON -- This year's decline in existing home sales will be steeper than previously anticipated, a trade group for real estate agents predicted Wednesday.

The eighth straight downwardly revised forecast from the National Association of Realtors calls for U.S. existing home sales to be 10.8 percent below last year as housing market woes persist. Sales of new homes, meanwhile, are expected to finish 2007 at the lowest level in a decade.

The trade group's outlook for 2007 homes sales has grown more pessimistic through the year as foreclosures soared, credit market troubles developed and sales fell. Back in February, the group forecast an annual decline in existing home sales of only 0.6 percent.

In its October report, the association predicts 5.78 million existing homes will be sold in 2007, down from 6.48 million last year. Last month, the association predicted an 8.6 percent drop from a year ago.

This year's sales would be the lowest since 2002, when sales hit 5.63 million.

Sale prices for existing homes are forecast to drop 1.3 percent to a median of $219,000 this year -- a slight improvement from last month's prediction of a 1.7 percent decline. The median price refers to the point where half sold for more and half for less.

Next year, the trade group expects existing home sales to climb to 6.12 million. That is 2.4 percent lower than last month's prediction.

The picture, however, is bleaker in California, one of the states most caught up in this decade's housing boom.

The California Association of Realtors projected Wednesday that existing home sales in that state would fall 9 percent next year.

Nationwide new home sales are projected to fall to 805,000 this year, down 23 percent from 1.05 million last year, according to the national Realtors group. If that forecast is accurate, it would be the worst year since 1997, when 804,000 newly constructed homes were sold. In 2008, 752,000 new home sales are expected.

The group's senior economist, Lawrence Yun, noted that markets including Austin, Texas, Salt Lake City and Raleigh, N.C., are showing price growth and 2007's home sales will be the fifth-highest on record.

"The speculative excesses have been removed from the market and home sales are returning to fundamentally healthy levels, while prices remain near record highs, reflecting favorable mortgage rates and positive job gains," Yun said.